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98 个国家的人口增长、价格水平、贫困发生率与碳排放之间的关系。

Relationship between population growth, price level, poverty incidence, and carbon emissions in a panel of 98 countries.

机构信息

Faculty of Business Administration, Iqra University, Karachi, Pakistan.

Department of Management Sciences, Bahria University Karachi Campus, Karachi, Pakistan.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Sep;27(25):31778-31792. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08465-1. Epub 2020 Jun 5.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-020-08465-1
PMID:32504428
Abstract

The objective of the study is to examine the dynamic linkages between population growth, price level, poverty headcount ratio, and carbon emissions under investigation of different plausible hypothesis, including "population-induced poverty trap," "welfare-reducing effects," "environmental Kuznets curve," and "pollution haven" hypotheses in the cross-sectional setting of 98 developed and developing countries for the period of 2011. The study used cross-sectional regression and switching regression regime for empirical analysis. The result shows a positive relationship between changes in price level and carbon emissions that verify "welfare-reducing effects," while there is a negative relationship between population growth and poverty at varying poverty threshold to support the "Gary Becker human capital theory." Further, there is a positive relationship between poverty rates and carbon emissions across countries. The results verified the "pollution haven" hypothesis in account of increase in pollution through financial liberalization policies. A U-shaped relationship is found between economic growth and carbon emissions in a given time period. The study concludes that globalized world should have to be careful when devising environmental sustainability policies, as it is important to provide social safety nets to the lower income strata group; hence, it would be helpful to achieve global green development agenda.

摘要

本研究旨在考察人口增长、物价水平、贫困发生率和碳排放量之间的动态联系,在对“人口贫困陷阱”、“福利减少效应”、“环境库兹涅茨曲线”和“污染避难所”等不同假说进行检验的基础上,选用 98 个发达国家和发展中国家 2011 年的横截面数据,运用横截面回归和开关回归模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,物价水平的变化与碳排放量之间呈正相关关系,验证了“福利减少效应”;而人口增长与贫困发生率之间在不同贫困门槛下呈负相关关系,支持“加里·贝克尔人力资本理论”。此外,各国的贫困率与碳排放量之间呈正相关关系。结果表明,考虑到金融自由化政策导致的污染增加,“污染避难所”假说得到了验证。在一定时期内,经济增长与碳排放量之间存在着 U 型关系。研究结论认为,全球化世界在制定环境可持续性政策时应谨慎行事,因为为低收入阶层提供社会安全网非常重要;因此,这将有助于实现全球绿色发展议程。

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