Knee surgery trends and projections in France from 2008 to 2070.

INTRODUCTION

Knee surgery makes up a large share of the orthopedic surgery practice. Data on how this activity has changed over time is not available in France, thus we wanted to do a study to determine 1) how many knee surgeries were performed in France in 2018, 2) how this changed between 2012 and 2018, and 3) how it is projected to change by 2070. The hypothesis is that the number of knee surgeries will increase over the next 50 years.

METHODS

This was an epidemiology study analysing coding data for surgical procedures in France between 2012 and 2018. Two scenarios were defined to assess the change over time: the first only considered population growth and how the age distribution changes over time, and the second extrapolated the trends observed over the past few years.

RESULTS

In 2018, 321,179 procedures were coded as a main knee surgery procedure. The three most frequent were primary knee arthroplasty with 113,600 procedures (31.2% of procedures) then meniscus surgery (110,510 procedures or 30.3%) and then ligament surgery (57,053 procedures or 15.7%). The number of primary knee arthroplasty procedures increased by 32.2% between 2012 and 2018. Between 2018 and 2050, the different scenarios suggested an increase of 30.8% to 152.8%. The number of ligament surgery procedures increased by 17.3% between 2012 and 2018. Between 2018 and 2050, an increase of 1.2% to 49.2% is expected. The number of meniscus procedures decreased by 14.2% between 2012 and 2018. Between 2018 and 2050, scenario 1 projects a 5.6% increase and scenario 2 a 73.6% reduction.

DISCUSSION

The number of knee surgery procedures per year has increased over the past few years in France and should continue to increase.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV, descriptive epidemiology study.