Rammohan Anu, Purwono Rudi, Harymawan Iman
Faculty of Economics and Business, Airlangga University, Indonesia.
Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Australia.
Heliyon. 2020 May 31;6(5):e04098. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04098. eCollection 2020 May.
This paper tests whether economic growth and unemployment rates matter in the re-election of incumbent district leaders in Indonesia. Applying the Probit and Hekcprobit model on Indonesia's local direct elections during 2005-2013, we find that both unemployment and GDP per capita growth has an impact on election outcomes in the election year. However, for incumbent district leaders' it is only the average annual GDP per capita growth that matters for re-election. However, when we separate (district's performance due to regional or national economy) from (district's own economic performance), we find that matters for re-election in the election year, while matters for re-election in the average annual performance of the incumbents' tenure. The findings suggest that voters put more attention and vigilance on the incumbents' performances in the last year of their tenure, rather than on their whole tenure.
本文检验了经济增长和失业率对印度尼西亚现任地区领导人再次当选是否有影响。通过将Probit模型和Hekcprobit模型应用于2005年至2013年印度尼西亚的地方直接选举，我们发现失业率和人均GDP增长都对选举当年的选举结果有影响。然而，对于现任地区领导人而言，只有人均GDP的年均增长对再次当选至关重要。但是，当我们将（因地区或国家经济导致的地区表现）与（地区自身的经济表现）区分开来时，我们发现前者对选举当年的再次当选有影响，而后者对现任领导人任期内的年均表现的再次当选有影响。研究结果表明，选民更关注和警惕现任领导人任期最后一年的表现，而非其整个任期的表现。
