Urban growth and land subsidence: Multi-decadal investigation using human settlement data and satellite InSAR in Morelia, Mexico.

Limited attention is typically paid to the cause-effect relationship between land subsidence due to aquifers overexploitation in expanding metropolises and urban growth models and patterns. This paper implements an integrated urban and satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) approach to investigate subsidence, multi-decadal urban growth and peopling trends in the Metropolitan Area of Morelia (ZMM) in the Mexican state of Michoacán. Stacking of JRC's Global Human Settlement Layer, DLR's World Settlement Footprint and INEGI's National Geostatistical Framework datasets reveals a predominant edge-expansion growth model, with urban densification in 1975-2020 and some sprawling in 1990-2000. Population of the ZMM doubled in the last 30 years, reaching over 1 million inhabitants. The ENVISAT and Sentinel-1 InSAR analysis confirms that subsidence is structurally-controlled by the main normal faults within the Cuitzeo half-graben. Differential sinking and ground discontinuities are aligned with buried tectonic faults and contrasting compressible sediment thickness. Non-linearly deforming subsidence bowls develop at extraction wells in both old and newly urbanized sectors of the ZMM. Maximum vertical displacement velocities increased from -2.5 cm/year in 2003-2010 to -9.0 cm/year in 2014-2021, with subsidence migrating towards recently urbanized zones. More than 250 new groundwater wells were added to the public registry since 2000, many of which within new urban sectors. Time-lapse InSAR reveals a 4 km rapidly subsiding bowl that formed at the largest social housing neighbourhood of Villas del Pedregal, as building lots were progressively completed and sold, and new wells registered. With angular distortions due to the differential subsidence reaching 0.12% in 2014-2021, new buildings and roads are exposed to fracturing and surface faulting risk of comparable level as the city historic building blocks located along the main faults. By providing useful insights into the relationship between urban growth and land subsidence in the ZMM, the approach proves valuable for application to other metropolises worldwide.