Inverse time trends of peptic ulcer and reflux esophagitis show significant association with reduced prevalence of infection.

INTRODUCTION

Recent prevalence and trends of gastric/duodenal ulcer (GU/DU) and reflux esophagitis (RE) are inadequate.

METHODS

We reviewed the records of consecutive 211,347 general population subjects from 1991 to 2015.

RESULTS

During the 25 years, the prevalence of GU and DU has gradually decreased (from 3.0% to 0.3% and from 2.0% to 0.3%) whereas that of RE has markedly increased (from 2.0% to 22%). The prevalence of (HP) infection has decreased from 49.8% (in 1996) to 31.2% (in 2010). Multivariable logistic regression analyses demonstrated that HP infection was positively associated with GU/DU and negatively associated with RE with statistical significance. The panel data analyses showed that reduced rate of HP infection is proportionally correlated with decrease of GU/DU and inversely correlated with increase of RE. It is further suggested other latent factors should be important for changed prevalence of these three acid-related diseases. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated the significant association of older age, male gender, and absence of HP infection with RE.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of GU and DU has gradually decreased whereas that of RE has markedly increased in Japan. Inverse time trends of peptic ulcer and reflux esophagitis are significantly associated with reduced prevalence of HP infection. KEY MESSAGES The prevalence of gastric and duodenal ulcer has gradually decreased whereas that of reflux esophagitis has markedly increased in Japan. The prevalence of infection in Japan has greatly decreased from 49.8% to 31.2% during the 14 years (from 1996 to 2010). Inverse time trends of peptic ulcer and reflux esophagitis are associated with reduced prevalence of infection with statistical significance.