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美国两个世纪的定居和城市发展。

Two centuries of settlement and urban development in the United States.

作者信息

Leyk Stefan, Uhl Johannes H, Connor Dylan S, Braswell Anna E, Mietkiewicz Nathan, Balch Jennifer K, Gutmann Myron

机构信息

Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, 260 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, 483 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

出版信息

Sci Adv. 2020 Jun 3;6(23):eaba2937. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aba2937. eCollection 2020 Jun.

Abstract

Over the past 200 years, the population of the United States grew more than 40-fold. The resulting development of the built environment has had a profound impact on the regional economic, demographic, and environmental structure of North America. Unfortunately, constraints on data availability limit opportunities to study long-term development patterns and how population growth relates to land-use change. Using hundreds of millions of property records, we undertake the finest-resolution analysis to date, in space and time, of urbanization patterns from 1810 to 2015. Temporally consistent metrics reveal distinct long-term urban development patterns characterizing processes such as settlement expansion and densification at fine granularity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these settlement measures are robust proxies for population throughout the record and thus potential surrogates for estimating population changes at fine scales. These new insights and data vastly expand opportunities to study land use, population change, and urbanization over the past two centuries.

摘要

在过去的200年里,美国人口增长了40多倍。由此产生的建筑环境发展对北美的区域经济、人口和环境结构产生了深远影响。不幸的是,数据可用性的限制阻碍了对长期发展模式以及人口增长与土地利用变化之间关系的研究。我们利用数亿条房产记录,对1810年至2015年的城市化模式进行了迄今为止在空间和时间上分辨率最高的分析。时间上一致的指标揭示了不同的长期城市发展模式,这些模式在精细粒度上刻画了诸如定居点扩张和 densification 等过程。此外,我们证明这些定居点测量指标在整个记录中都是人口的可靠代理指标,因此有可能作为在精细尺度上估计人口变化的替代指标。这些新的见解和数据极大地拓展了研究过去两个世纪土地利用、人口变化和城市化的机会。

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