Department of Psychiatry, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Center, Geert Grooteplein Zuid 10, Route 836, room 4.84, Nijmegen 6525, GA, the Netherlands; Faculty of Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
Department of Chronic Diseases, National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia; Department Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia; School of Natural Sciences and Health, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia.
Psychiatry Res. 2020 Sep;291:113208. doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2020.113208. Epub 2020 Jun 12.
Adult antisocial behaviour has precursors in childhood and adolescence and is most successfully treated using childhood interventions. The aim of this study was to identify and validate robust risk factors for antisocial behaviour involving police contact in a data-driven, hypothesis-free framework. Antisocial behavior involving police contact (20/25% incidence) as well as 554 other behavioural and environmental measures were assessed in the longitudinal general population Estonian Children Personality Behaviour and Health Study sample (n=872). The strongest risk factors for antisocial behaviour included past substance use disorder, gender, aggressive mode of action upon provocation, and concentration difficulties and physical fighting in school at age 15 years. Prediction using the selected variables for both methods in the other, unseen cohort resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.78-0.84. Our work confirms known risk factors for antisocial behaviour as well as identifies novel specific risk factors. Together, these provide good predictive power in an unseen cohort. Our identification and validation of risk factors for antisocial behaviour can aid early intervention for at-risk individuals.
成人反社会行为在儿童和青少年时期有前兆，使用儿童干预措施最能成功治疗。本研究旨在在数据驱动、无假设的框架中确定和验证涉及与警方接触的反社会行为的强大风险因素。在纵向一般人群爱沙尼亚儿童人格行为和健康研究样本（n=872）中，评估了涉及与警方接触的反社会行为（20/25%的发病率）以及其他 554 项行为和环境措施。反社会行为的最强风险因素包括过去的物质使用障碍、性别、挑衅时的攻击性行为模式以及 15 岁时的注意力集中困难和在学校打架。使用所选变量在另一组未观察到的队列中进行两种方法的预测，其受试者工作特征曲线下面积为 0.78-0.84。我们的工作证实了反社会行为的已知风险因素，并确定了新的特定风险因素。这些因素共同为未观察到的队列提供了良好的预测能力。我们对反社会行为风险因素的识别和验证可以帮助高危个体进行早期干预。
