Graduate School of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Nagasaki University, 1-14 Bunkyo-machi, Nagasaki 852-8521, Japan.
Graduate School of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Nagasaki University, 1-14 Bunkyo-machi, Nagasaki 852-8521, Japan; Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 20;740:140155. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140155. Epub 2020 Jun 15.
China's energy use has increased significantly in recent years with the country's rapid economic growth and large-scale urbanization. Therefore, air pollution has become a major issue. In this study, we conducted spatial autocorrelation and spatial panel regression analyses of sulfur dioxide (SO) and nitrogen oxide (NO) emissions using the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative units in China during the period 2011-2017 to comprehensively understand the factors affecting air pollutant emissions. This study contributes to the literature by considering comprehensive factors and spatial effects in the panel-data econometric framework of the whole country of China. The analysis of spatial characteristics shows that during the study period, pollutant emissions in China declined, although emissions in northern regions were still relatively high. Furthermore, SO and NO emissions showed significant positive spatial autocorrelations. The results of a fixed-effect spatial lag model showed that both socioeconomic and natural factors were statistically significant for air pollutant emissions, although the degree differed by the type of pollutant. The population, the urbanization rate, the share of added value of secondary industry, and heating and cooling degree days positively affected emissions, while population density, per-capita gross regional product, precipitation, and relative humidity negatively affected emissions. Based on these results, we have put forward suggestions to address the issue of air pollution and achieve environmental sustainability, such as the promotion of regional cooperation and a transition of the economic structure.
近年来，随着中国经济的快速增长和大规模的城市化进程，能源消耗显著增加，因此，空气污染已成为一个主要问题。在本研究中，我们利用 2011-2017 年中国 31 个省级行政区的面板数据，对二氧化硫（SO）和氮氧化物（NO）排放进行了空间自相关和空间面板回归分析，以全面了解影响空气污染物排放的因素。本研究通过在全国面板数据计量经济学框架中考虑综合因素和空间效应，为相关文献做出了贡献。对空间特征的分析表明，在研究期间，尽管北部地区的排放仍然相对较高，但中国的污染物排放量呈下降趋势。此外，SO 和 NO 排放表现出显著的正空间自相关性。固定效应空间滞后模型的结果表明，社会经济和自然因素对空气污染物排放均具有统计学意义，尽管不同类型的污染物的程度有所不同。人口、城市化率、第二产业增加值份额和冷暖度日数对排放有积极影响，而人口密度、人均地区生产总值、降水量和相对湿度对排放有负面影响。基于这些结果，我们提出了一些建议，以解决空气污染问题，实现环境可持续性，如促进区域合作和经济结构转型。
