Paraje Guillermo, Araya Daniel, De Paz Adonay, Nargis Nigar
Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Santiago de Chile, Chile
Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Santiago de Chile, Chile.
Tob Control. 2020 Jun 22. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055568.
In El Salvador, 8.8% of adults 15 years and older smoke cigarettes. Little is known about the sensitivity of cigarette consumption among the adults in El Salvador to tax and price increases and income growth.
Elasticities are estimated using Deaton's Almost Ideal Demand System model applied to data from the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005/2006 for the total population and separately for income groups. The estimates are then used to simulate the effects of a proposed change in tobacco tax policy on cigarette consumption and tax revenue.
The estimated price elasticities (-0.77 for the total population) are within the range of price elasticity estimates available for low and middle-income countries. Given the estimated elasticities, a tobacco tax increase is expected to reduce the number of smokers (by almost 20%) and increase tobacco tax revenue (by more than 50%).
Increasing tobacco taxes has the potential to decrease consumption in El Salvador and raise fiscal revenues. The tobacco tax burden in El Salvador is one of the lowest in Latin America and the social costs of tobacco consumption largely exceed the tobacco tax revenues. An increase in tobacco tax could significantly decrease the number of smokers and reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and deaths.
在萨尔瓦多，15岁及以上的成年人中有8.8%吸烟。关于萨尔瓦多成年人的香烟消费对税收和价格上涨以及收入增长的敏感度，人们知之甚少。
使用迪顿的几乎理想需求系统模型估计弹性，该模型应用于2005/2006年全国家庭收入和支出调查的数据，分别针对总人口和不同收入群体。然后，这些估计值被用于模拟拟议的烟草税收政策变化对香烟消费和税收收入的影响。
估计的价格弹性（总人口为-0.77）在低收入和中等收入国家可得的价格弹性估计范围内。鉴于估计的弹性，预计提高烟草税将减少吸烟者数量（近20%）并增加烟草税收收入（超过50%）。
提高烟草税有可能在萨尔瓦多减少消费并增加财政收入。萨尔瓦多的烟草税负担是拉丁美洲最低的之一，烟草消费的社会成本大大超过烟草税收收入。提高烟草税可大幅减少吸烟者数量并减轻与烟草相关的疾病和死亡负担。
