Department of Economics, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.
Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.
Tob Control. 2015 Jan;24(1):77-81. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050703. Epub 2013 Jun 20.
Tobacco consumption rates in Lebanon are among the highest worldwide. The country ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2005. A law was passed in 2011 which regulates smoking in closed public spaces, bans advertising, and stipulates larger warnings. Despite international evidence confirming that increasing taxation on tobacco products lowers tobacco consumption, no such policy has yet been adopted: a cigarette pack costs on average US$1.50. To date no studies in Lebanon have addressed the welfare and public finance effects of increasing taxes on tobacco products.
Using the 2005 national survey of household living conditions, we estimate an almost ideal demand system to generate price elasticities of demand for tobacco. Using estimated elasticities and a conservative scenario for expected smuggling, we simulate the consumption and tax revenue effects of a change in the price of tobacco under various tax schemes.
Increasing taxes on all tobacco products so as to double the price of imported cigarettes would lower their consumption by 7% and consumption of domestically produced cigarettes by over 90%. Young adults (ages 15-30) are more sensitive: consumption would drop by 9% for imported cigarettes and by 100% for domestic cigarettes. Government revenues would increase by approximately 52%.
The estimated elasticities indicate that an increase in taxes on all tobacco products would lead to a reduction in consumption and an increase in government revenue. Evidence from Lebanon on the effectiveness of increased taxation may help initiate national debate on the need to raise taxes.
黎巴嫩的烟草消费率位居世界前列。该国于 2005 年批准了《烟草控制框架公约》。2011 年通过了一项法律，规定在封闭的公共场所禁烟、禁止广告宣传，并规定了更大的警示标识。尽管国际证据证实，提高烟草产品税收会降低烟草消费，但该国尚未采取此类政策：一包香烟的平均价格约为 1.50 美元。迄今为止，黎巴嫩尚无研究探讨提高烟草产品税收对福利和公共财政的影响。
我们利用 2005 年全国家庭生活状况调查，采用几乎理想的需求系统来估算烟草需求的价格弹性。利用估算的弹性和对预期走私的保守假设，我们模拟了在各种税收方案下，烟草价格变化对烟草消费和税收收入的影响。
全面提高所有烟草产品的税收，使进口香烟价格翻倍，将使香烟消费量减少 7%，国产香烟消费量减少 90%以上。年轻人（15-30 岁）更为敏感：进口香烟消费量将减少 9%，国产香烟消费量将减少 100%。政府收入将增加约 52%。
估算的弹性表明，提高所有烟草产品的税收将导致消费减少和政府收入增加。黎巴嫩有关提高税收有效性的证据可能有助于引发全国范围内关于提高税收必要性的辩论。
