Opelz G, Mickey M R, Terasaki P I
Transplant Proc. 1977 Mar;9(1):27-30.
Long-term survival rates of human kidney transplants were found to decline at constant rates following the second year after transplantation. The slopes of decline were statistically significantly different for cadaver, parent-to-child, and HLA-identifical sibling transplants, resulting in graft survival half-life times during the constant risk phase of 7.5, 11, and 34 years, respectively. The corresponding patient survival half-life times were 12, 19, and 36 years, respectively. A highly significant difference in long-term survival risk was found when seven transplant centers that had been selected on the basis of their good 1-year graft survival results were compared with seven centers known to have a poor 1-year survival rate. The cadaver graft half-life times during the constant risk phase were 3.3 years for the "poor" centers and 8.7 years for the "good" centers. Thus, although histocompatibility obviously is a main factor in determining long-term survival risk, additional factors such as clinical treatment regimen appear to be influential. Knowledge of the long-term risk constants for the different transplant categories can be applied for the projection of success rates as well as retransplant and dialysis needs.
研究发现，人类肾移植的长期存活率在移植后第二年开始呈恒定速率下降。尸体供肾移植、亲子间移植以及 HLA 配型相同的同胞间移植的下降斜率在统计学上有显著差异，在恒定风险期，移植肾存活半衰期分别为 7.5 年、11 年和 34 年。相应的患者存活半衰期分别为 12 年、19 年和 36 年。当将七个因 1 年移植肾存活率良好而被挑选出的移植中心与七个已知 1 年存活率较差的中心进行比较时，发现长期存活风险存在高度显著差异。在恒定风险期，“差”中心的尸体供肾移植肾半衰期为 3.3 年，“好”中心为 8.7 年。因此，尽管组织相容性显然是决定长期存活风险的主要因素，但诸如临床治疗方案等其他因素似乎也有影响。了解不同移植类型的长期风险常数可用于预测成功率以及再次移植和透析需求。
