Prediction of early retirement on the basis of a health examination. An 11-year follow-up of 264 male employees in a Swedish pulp and paper company.

In a Swedish pulp and paper company 264 men in the age groups 36, 46, and 56 years underwent a health examination in 1972. An 11-year follow-up in respect of early retirement was performed. On the basis of collected data, five scales to assess work ability were established. The scales were (i) self-assessment of health and work capacity, (ii) the doctor's evaluation of general medical work capacity, (iii) the doctor's assessment of medical adaptation to work, (iv) aerobic work capacity, predicted from a submaximal bicycle test, and (v) work performance, determined from an interview with the subject's nearest superior. Multivariate analysis of the five scales and about 30 other variables showed that general medical work capacity was one of the strongest predictors of early retirement. It was also shown that the medical variables were better predictors of early retirement than the psychological and sociological ones. It was concluded that it is possible to predict early retirement on the basis of a health examination within an occupational health organization.