Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Fiocruz, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Departamento de Epidemiologia e Métodos Quantitativos em Saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - UERJ, Instituto de Medicina Social, Departamento de Epidemiologia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Braz Oral Res. 2020 Jun 24;34:e068. doi: 10.1590/1807-3107bor-2020.vol34.0068.
The World Health Organization declared a COVID-19 pandemic on March 11, 2020, when there were 4,293 confirmed cumulative deaths. By May 17, 2020 this number increased to 315,005. The risk of death is higher above the age of 60, but there are many deaths below 60 (for example, in Sao Paulo, 25%). Due to the lack of a vaccine or specific treatment, there are at least three types of interventions used in the first wave of this pandemic: increased alertness and hygiene (e.g. Sweden); identification and isolation of infected people and their contacts (e.g. South Korea); lockdown (e.g. Italy). These interventions are complementary. Choices of the right mix of interventions will vary from society to society and in the same society at different times. The search for a miracle drug is dangerous because it is based on the mistaken belief that any treatment option is better than "nothing". Brazilian society will not be able to maintain lockdown for a long period. Naturally, in the near future, regardless of the advice from scientists, doctors and authorities, commerce, services and schools will reopen. In order to implement any strategy aimed to control the pandemic and preserve the economy, the country needs leadership that centralizes and coordinates actions. Unfortunately, the Brazilian government is not fulfilling this role; on the contrary, it is a hindrance. This negative leadership and lack of coordination are causing many deaths and are severely damaging the lives of survivors by delaying the resuming of economic and social activities.
世界卫生组织于 2020 年 3 月 11 日宣布 COVID-19 大流行,当时累计确诊死亡人数为 4293 人。截至 2020 年 5 月 17 日,这一数字增加到 315005 人。死亡风险在 60 岁以上更高,但也有许多 60 岁以下的人死亡(例如,在圣保罗,有 25%的人死亡)。由于缺乏疫苗或特定治疗方法,在这一大流行的第一波中至少使用了三种干预措施:提高警惕和卫生水平(例如瑞典);识别和隔离感染者及其接触者(例如韩国);封锁(例如意大利)。这些干预措施是互补的。选择正确的干预措施组合将因社会而异,在同一社会的不同时间也会有所不同。寻找神奇药物是危险的,因为它基于任何治疗选择都比“无所作为”更好的错误信念。巴西社会将无法长期维持封锁状态。自然而然,在不久的将来,无论科学家、医生和当局的建议如何,商业、服务业和学校都将重新开放。为了实施任何旨在控制大流行和保护经济的战略,该国需要集中和协调行动的领导力。不幸的是,巴西政府没有发挥这一作用;相反,它是一个障碍。这种消极的领导和缺乏协调正在导致许多人死亡,并通过延迟经济和社会活动的恢复,严重破坏幸存者的生活。