AlRyalat Saif Aldeen, Elubous Khaled A, Al-Ebous Ali D, Mahafzah Azmi
Ophthalmology, The University of Jordan, Amman, JOR.
Surgery, King Hussein Cancer Center, Amman, JOR.
Cureus. 2021 Aug 19;13(8):e17299. doi: 10.7759/cureus.17299. eCollection 2021 Aug.
This study evaluated a special form of lockdown that was applied in Jordan: one day of lockdown every week, which was applied on consecutive weekend days (i.e., Friday in Jordan, for 24 hours). We tried to assess the impact of this form of lockdown on the daily number of positive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, using interrupted time series analysis. We included the period of March 5 to April 17, 2021, as the period affected by the Friday lockdown, which was applied to seven consecutive Fridays with a total of 168 hours. We used R version 4.0.5 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) for our analysis. We used Poisson model regression analysis, where the number of positive cases was used as the outcome variable, while the total number of tests, time, and lockdown were used as the predictor variables. We further performed quasi-Poisson regression analysis to confirm the first model. On Poisson model regression analysis, it was found that there was an evidence of an increase in the number of positive COVID-19 cases following the intervention of Friday lockdown, with a p value of <0.001 (relative risk, 1.569; 95% confidence interval, 1.549-1.590). On using quasi-Poisson regression, similar results were found with a wider confidence interval. We concluded that a single weekend day lockdown led to an increase in the number of daily cases of COVID-19. Therefore, we recommend authorities to adhere to evidence-based measures or to the WHO recommendations in the dealing with this pandemic.
每周进行一天封锁,且在连续的周末实施(即约旦的周五,为期24小时)。我们试图采用中断时间序列分析来评估这种封锁形式对2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)每日新增确诊病例数的影响。我们纳入了2021年3月5日至4月17日这一受周五封锁影响的时间段,该封锁措施连续实施了七个周五,总计168小时。我们使用R 4.0.5版本(奥地利维也纳的R统计计算基金会)进行分析。我们采用泊松模型回归分析,将确诊病例数作为结果变量,而将检测总数、时间和封锁作为预测变量。我们进一步进行了拟泊松回归分析以验证第一个模型。在泊松模型回归分析中,发现周五封锁干预后COVID-19确诊病例数有增加的迹象,p值<0.001(相对风险,1.569;95%置信区间,1.549 - 1.590)。在使用拟泊松回归时,发现了类似结果,但置信区间更宽。我们得出结论,单周末日封锁导致了COVID-19每日病例数增加。因此,我们建议当局在应对这一疫情时坚持基于证据的措施或遵循世界卫生组织的建议。