Network Center for Biomedical Research in Neurodegenerative Diseases (CIBERNED), Institute Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain.
Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBELL), Barcelona, Spain.
Alzheimers Dement. 2020 Oct;16(10):1438-1447. doi: 10.1002/alz.12133. Epub 2020 Jul 2.
We developed a prognostic model for overall survival after diagnosis of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) using data from a German surveillance study.
We included 1226 sCJD cases (median age 66 years, range 19-89 years; 56.8% women with information on age, sex, codon 129 genotype, 14-3-3 in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and CSF tau concentrations. The prognostic accuracy for overall survival was measured by the c statistics of multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. A score chart was derived to predict 6-month survival and median survival time.
A model containing age, sex, codon 129 genotype, and CSF tau (with two-way interactions) was selected as the model with the highest c statistic (0.686, 95% confidence interval: 0.665-0.707) in a cross-validation approach.
We developed the first prognostic model for overall survival of sCJD patients based on readily available information only. The developed score chart serves as a hands-on prediction tool for clinical practice.
我们利用德国监测研究的数据，为散发性克雅氏病（sCJD）患者的总生存预后建立了一个预测模型。
我们纳入了 1226 例 sCJD 患者（中位年龄 66 岁，范围 19-89 岁；56.8%的患者提供了年龄、性别、129 密码子基因型、脑脊液中 14-3-3 蛋白和 CSF tau 浓度的信息。通过多变量 Cox 比例风险模型的 c 统计量来衡量总生存预后的准确性。我们得出了一个评分图表来预测 6 个月生存率和中位生存时间。
在交叉验证方法中，包含年龄、性别、129 密码子基因型和 CSF tau（具有双向交互作用）的模型被选为具有最高 c 统计量（0.686，95%置信区间：0.665-0.707）的模型。
我们基于易于获得的信息，为 sCJD 患者的总生存预后建立了第一个预测模型。开发的评分图表为临床实践提供了一个实用的预测工具。
