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COVID-19 疫苗的有条件评估。

Contingent assessment of the COVID-19 vaccine.

机构信息

Faculty of Economics & Business, Universidad de Talca, 1 Poniente 1141, Talca, Chile.

出版信息

Vaccine. 2020 Jul 22;38(34):5424-5429. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.06.068. Epub 2020 Jun 25.

DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.06.068
PMID:32620375
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7315946/
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only had a negative impact on people's health and life behavior, but also on economies around the world. At the same time, laboratories and institutions are working hard to obtain a COVID-19 vaccine, which we hope will be available soon. However, there has been no assessment of whether an individual and society value ​​a vaccine monetarily, and what factors determine this value. Therefore, the objective of this research was to estimate the individual's willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine and, at the same time, find the main factors that determine this valuation. For this, we used the contingent valuation approach, in its single and double-bounded dichotomous choice format, which was based on a hypothetical market for a vaccine. The sample used was obtained through an online survey of n = 566 individuals from Chile. The main results showed that the WTP depends on the preexistence of chronic disease (p≤0.05), knowledge of COVID-19 (p≤0.05), being sick with COVID-19 (p≤0.05), perception of government performance (p≤0.01), employment status (p≤0.01), income (p≤0.01), health care (p≤0.05), adaptation to quarantine with children at home (p≤0.01) and whether the person has recovered from COVID-19 (p≤0.10). According to our discrete choice model in double-bounded dichotomous format, it was concluded that the individuals' WTP is US$184.72 (CI: 165.52-203.92; p < 0.01). This implies a social valuation of approximately US$2232 million, corresponding to 1.09% of the GNP per capita.

摘要

新冠疫情不仅对人们的健康和生活行为产生了负面影响,也对全球经济造成了影响。与此同时,实验室和机构正在努力研发新冠疫苗,我们希望该疫苗能尽快问世。然而,目前还没有评估个人和社会是否会从经济角度衡量疫苗的价值,以及哪些因素决定了这种价值。因此,本研究的目的是评估个人对新冠疫苗的支付意愿(WTP),并同时找到决定这种估值的主要因素。为此,我们使用了条件价值评估方法,采用单边界和双边界二分式选择格式,基于疫苗的假设市场。样本是通过对智利 566 名个体进行在线调查获得的。主要结果表明,WTP 取决于是否患有慢性病(p≤0.05)、对新冠病毒的了解程度(p≤0.05)、是否感染过新冠病毒(p≤0.05)、对政府表现的看法(p≤0.01)、就业状况(p≤0.01)、收入(p≤0.01)、医疗保健(p≤0.05)、适应与孩子在家隔离(p≤0.01)以及是否从新冠病毒中康复(p≤0.10)。根据我们在双边界二分式格式下的离散选择模型,得出的结论是,个体的 WTP 为 184.72 美元(置信区间:165.52-203.92;p<0.01)。这意味着社会对疫苗的估值约为 2.232 亿美元,相当于人均国民生产总值的 1.09%。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c0bc/7315946/5381518863dc/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c0bc/7315946/5381518863dc/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c0bc/7315946/5381518863dc/gr1_lrg.jpg

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