Department of Mechanical Engineering, Rice University, Houston, 77004, TX, USA.
Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Rice University, Houston, 77004, TX, USA.
Nat Commun. 2020 Jul 3;11(1):3319. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7.
The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but-consistently across models-stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21 century.
热带气旋（TC）的移动，尤其是在登陆时，会对最终造成的破坏产生重大影响。最近，TC 翻译速度的趋势以及哈维等停滞 TC 的可能性引起了广泛关注，但研究结果仍不确定。在这里，我们研究了在人为气候变化下，未来登陆德克萨斯州的 TC 的 6-9 月引导风和翻译速度将如何变化。我们使用了几个大型集合/多模式数据集，发现北美的经向引导风响应存在明显的区域变化，但一致的是，在所有模型中，德克萨斯州 6-9 月的平均北向引导风更强。对每日风模式的聚类分析表明，未来引导登陆 TC 向北的环流模式更加频繁。降尺度实验表明，未来翻译速度分布中从慢移到快移的转折点将向后移动 10 个百分点。综上所述，这些分析表明，在 21 世纪后期，德克萨斯州登陆的快速移动 TC 的可能性将会增加。
