Lin Ning, Kopp Robert E, Horton Benjamin P, Donnelly Jeffrey P
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Oct 25;113(43):12071-12075. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1604386113. Epub 2016 Oct 10.
Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.
沿海洪水灾害会随着风暴潮气候学和海平面的变化而变化。在此，我们结合海平面和风暴潮气候学的概率预测来估计洪水灾害的时间演变。我们发现，在过去两个世纪里，纽约市的洪水灾害显著增加，并且在21世纪很可能会更加急剧地增加。由于海平面上升的影响，从1800年到2000年，飓风桑迪洪水高度的重现期减少了约3倍，在中等排放路径下，预计从2000年到2100年还将进一步减少约4.4倍。当考虑到21世纪潜在的风暴气候学变化时，预计从2000年到2100年，桑迪的重现期将减少约3倍至17倍。
