Business School, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China.
Department of Economics, Soochow University, 56, Kueiyang St., Sec. 1, Taipei 10048, Taiwan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jul 3;17(13):4792. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17134792.
As one of the largest agricultural countries in the world, China has always paid close attention to the sustainable development of agricultural production efficiency. However, with global climate change, extreme weather has become an exogenous factor that cannot be ignored, as it affects agricultural production. Most of the existing studies only consider the domestic natural resources and economic factors, without fully considering the external climate factors. This paper uses the super undesirable dynamic Slacks-Based Measures (SBM) under an exogenous variable model to simulate the external environmental factors by adding extreme weather days. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are used to explore the regional differences in agricultural production in China. The results show that the agricultural production efficiency is higher in the eastern region, and the difference in agricultural production efficiency among the provinces in the middle and western regions is large, showing a trend of polarization. The difference in the Gini coefficient between the middle and western regions is more significant. The main contribution factor of the Dagum Gini coefficient is the inter-regional difference. The regional concentration degree of agriculture in China is decreasing, the regional distribution of agricultural water resources is more balanced, and the national regional difference gradually decreases. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as extreme weather control, agricultural water supply, and water-saving measures.
作为世界上最大的农业国之一，中国一直高度关注农业生产效率的可持续发展。然而，随着全球气候变化，极端天气已成为一个不可忽视的外生因素，影响着农业生产。现有大多数研究仅考虑了国内自然资源和经济因素，没有充分考虑外部气候因素。本文利用超效率 SBM 模型在添加极端天气日的情况下模拟外部环境因素，利用 Dagum 基尼系数和核密度估计探索中国农业生产的区域差异。结果表明，东部地区农业生产效率较高，而中西部地区各省之间的农业生产效率差异较大，呈极化趋势。中、西部地区 Dagum 基尼系数差异较大。主要贡献因素是区域间差异。中国农业的区域集聚程度在降低，农业水资源的区域分布更加均衡，全国区域差异逐渐缩小。最后，提出了一些建议，如控制极端天气、农业供水和节水措施。
