Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinses Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100089, China.
School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100089, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 5;19(23):16297. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192316297.
Estimating the impact of climate change risks on rice distribution is one of the most important elements of climate risk management. This paper is based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform and multi-source remote sensing data; the authors quantitatively extracted rice production distribution data in China from 1990 to 2019, analysed the evolution pattern of rice distribution and clusters and explored the driving effects between climatic and environmental conditions on the evolution of rice production distribution using the non-parametric quantile regression model. The results show that: The spatial variation of rice distribution is significant, mainly concentrated in the northeast, south and southwest regions of China; the distribution of rice in the northeast is expanding, while the distribution of rice in the south is extending northward, showing a spatial evolution trend of "north rising and south retreating". The positive effect of precipitation on the spatial distribution of rice has a significant threshold. This shows that when precipitation is greater than 800 mm, there is a significant positive effect on the spatial distribution of rice production, and this effect will increase with precipitation increases. Climate change may lead to a continuous northward shift in the extent of rice production, especially extending to the northwest of China. This paper's results will help implement more spatially targeted climate change adaptation measures for rice to cope with the changes in food production distribution caused by climate change.
估算气候变化风险对水稻分布的影响是气候风险管理的最重要内容之一。本文基于 GEE（谷歌地球引擎）平台和多源遥感数据，定量提取了中国 1990 年至 2019 年的水稻产量分布数据，分析了水稻分布和聚类的演变模式，并利用非参数分位数回归模型探讨了气候和环境条件对水稻产量分布演变的驱动效应。结果表明：水稻分布的空间变化显著，主要集中在中国的东北、南部和西南部地区；东北的水稻分布在扩大，而南部的水稻分布在向北延伸，呈现出“北升南退”的空间演变趋势。降水对水稻空间分布的积极影响存在显著的阈值。这表明，当降水量大于 800mm 时，对水稻产量的空间分布有显著的正向影响，且这种影响随着降水的增加而增加。气候变化可能导致水稻种植范围持续向北方转移，特别是向中国西北部延伸。本文的研究结果将有助于实施更具针对性的气候变化适应措施，以应对气候变化导致的粮食生产分布变化。
