The Risk of Stroke and TIA in Nonstenotic Carotid Plaques: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND

Severe carotid stenosis carries a high risk of stroke. However, the risk of stroke with nonstenotic carotid plaques (<50%) is increasingly recognized.

PURPOSE

We aimed to summarize the risk of TIA or stroke in patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques.

DATA SOURCES

We performed a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke in whom carotid imaging was performed using MEDLINE and the Cochrane Database, including studies published up to December 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Included studies had >10 patients with <50% carotid plaques on any imaging technique and reported the incidence or recurrence of ischemic stroke/TIA. High-risk plaque features and the risk of progression to stenosis >50% were extracted if reported.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We identified 31 studies reporting on the risk of ipsilateral stroke/TIA in patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques. Twenty-five studies ( = 13,428 participants) reported on first-ever stroke/TIA and 6 studies ( = 122 participants) reported on the recurrence of stroke/TIA.

DATA ANALYSIS

The incidence of first-ever ipsilateral stroke/TIA was 0.5/100 person-years. The risk of recurrent stroke/TIA was 2.6/100 person-years and increased to 4.9/100 person-years if intraplaque hemorrhage was present. The risk of progression to severe stenosis (>50%) was 2.9/100 person-years (8 studies, = 448 participants).

LIMITATIONS

Included studies showed heterogeneity in reporting stroke etiology, the extent of stroke work-up, imaging modalities, and classification systems used for characterizing carotid stenosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of recurrent stroke/TIA in nonstenotic carotid plaques is not negligible, especially in the presence of high-risk plaque features. Further research is needed to better define the significance of nonstenotic carotid plaques for stroke etiology.