运用丧亲倍增器追踪 COVID-19 所致亲属丧失在美国的影响。
Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States.
机构信息
Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802;
Department of Sociology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 28;117(30):17695-17701. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2007476117. Epub 2020 Jul 10.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator-the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier-that estimates the average number of individuals who will experience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship networks in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multipliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. Our analysis shows that for every COVID-19 death, approximately nine surviving Americans will lose a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. These estimates imply, for example, that if 190,000 Americans die from COVID-19, as some models project, then ∼1.7 million will experience the death of a close relative. We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epidemiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19's multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.
2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行导致美国和世界各地的死亡率大幅上升,许多人因突然失去亲人而悲痛欲绝。我们创建了一个指标——COVID-19 丧亲率乘数,用于估计每例 COVID-19 死亡病例中平均会有多少人失去近亲(定义为祖父母、父母、兄弟姐妹、配偶或子女)。我们使用美国亲属关系网络的人口统计微观模拟估计、跨背景可见的 COVID-19 死亡率明显的年龄梯度以及几种假设的感染流行率情景,估计了美国白人和黑人的 COVID-19 丧亲率乘数。我们的分析表明,每例 COVID-19 死亡病例,约有 9 名幸存的美国人会失去祖父母、父母、兄弟姐妹、配偶或子女。这些估计意味着,例如,如果有 19 万美国人死于 COVID-19,正如一些模型预测的那样,那么约有 170 万人会经历近亲死亡。我们证明,我们的丧亲率乘数估计在包括感染情景、总死亡人数和死亡分布在内的流行病学现实中是稳定的,这意味着研究人员可以随着死亡人数的上升,与不断上升的死亡人数同步估计丧亲负担。此外,我们按年龄组、亲属关系丧失类型和种族提供丧亲率乘数的估计,以说明预期的差异。丧亲率乘数是一个有用的指标,可以跟踪 COVID-19 的倍增影响,因为它在美国家庭中回荡,并可针对其他死因进行调整。