中国居民主要死因全生命周期死亡概率分析。
Analysis of lifetime death probability for major causes of death among residents in China.
机构信息
Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.76 Jintai Road, Gulou District, Fuzhou, 350001, Fujian Province, China.
Educational Base, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350005, Fujian Province, China.
出版信息
BMC Public Health. 2020 Jul 11;20(1):1090. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-09201-7.
BACKGROUND
Cumulative mortality rate and cumulative mortality risk are two commonly used indicators to measure the impact and severity of diseases. However, they are calculated during a defined life span and assume the subject does not die from other causes. This study aims to use a new indicator, lifetime death probability (LDP), to estimate the lifetime death probabilities for the top five leading causes of death in China and explore the regional differences and trends over time.
METHODS
LDPs were calculated using a probability additive formula and abridged life tables.
RESULTS
In 2014, LDPs for heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, malignancy, respiratory disease, and injury and poisoning were 24.4, 23.7, 19.2, 15.5, and 5.3%, respectively. The LDPs for heart disease and malignancy increased by 7.3 and 0.5%, respectively, compared to those from 2004 to 2005. In contrast, the LDPs for cerebrovascular and respiratory disease decreased by 1.0 and 3.9%, respectively, compared to those in 2004-2005. Across the eastern, central and western regions, malignancy had the highest LDP in the eastern region, cerebrovascular and heart diseases in the central region, and respiratory diseases, and injury and poisoning in the western region.
CONCLUSIONS
LDP is an effective indicator for comparing health outcomes and can be applied for future disease surveillance. Heart disease and malignancy were the two most common causes of death in China, but with regional differences. There is a need to implement targeted measures to prevent chronic diseases in different regions.
背景
累积死亡率和累积死亡率风险是衡量疾病影响和严重程度的两个常用指标。然而，它们是在特定的寿命期内计算的，并假设受试者不会因其他原因死亡。本研究旨在使用一个新的指标，即终生死亡概率（LDP），来估计中国五大主要死因的终生死亡概率，并探讨其随时间的区域差异和趋势。
方法
使用概率加和公式和简化生命表来计算 LDPs。
结果
2014 年，心脏病、脑血管病、恶性肿瘤、呼吸病和伤害与中毒的 LDP 分别为 24.4%、23.7%、19.2%、15.5%和 5.3%。与 2004-2005 年相比，心脏病和恶性肿瘤的 LDP 分别增加了 7.3%和 0.5%。相比之下，脑血管病和呼吸病的 LDP 分别下降了 1.0%和 3.9%。在东部、中部和西部地区，恶性肿瘤的 LDP 最高，东部地区的脑血管病和心脏病，中部地区的呼吸病和伤害与中毒。
结论
LDP 是比较健康结果的有效指标，可用于未来的疾病监测。心脏病和恶性肿瘤是中国最常见的两种死因，但存在地域差异。需要在不同地区实施有针对性的措施来预防慢性病。
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