Yuan Ping, Chen Tie-Hui, Lin Xiu-Quan
Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China. Email:
Educational Base, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2019 Jul 1;20(7):2021-2025. doi: 10.31557/APJCP.2019.20.7.2021.
Objective: To estimate and comparably analyze the life-time death probability (LDP) caused by malignant tumors in different regions in 2004 and 2014. Methods: LDP was calculated by a probability additive formula and based on an abridged life table. Data on age-specific mortality was obtained from the National Cause-of- Death Surveillance Dataset in 2014 using surveillance sites in China and data on age-specific mortality was collected from the third retrospective investigation of death cause in China in 2004. Results: LDP caused by malignant tumors, lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal, and anal cancer were 19.2%, 5.6%, 2.8%, 2.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, respectively. In addition, we calculated LDP caused by malignant tumors in three different regions of China. LDP caused by malignant tumors were 21.2%, 6.1%, 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.0%, and 1.5% in the eastern region, were 18.3%, 5.5%, 2.7%, 3.0%, 1.5%, and 1.1% in the central region, and were 16.7%, 4.6%, 2.3%, 2.8%, 1.6%, and 1.2% in the western region, respectively. Additionally, LDP caused by malignant tumors in 2004 and 2015 were compared. We found that LDPs caused by malignant tumors, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer have increased in the past decade, while LDPs caused by gastric cancer, liver cancer, and esophageal cancer have experienced a decreasing trend. Conclusions: Malignant tumors were still the main cause of death in one’s life time, giving rise to LDP. LDP caused by malignant tumours has two divisions. First, traditional upper digestive system cancers related to long-term chronic infection, such as esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, and liver cancer, which has shown a significant downward trend. Second, lung and colorectal cancers related to the environmental factors and lifestyle, which are on the rise.
估计并比较分析2004年和2014年不同地区恶性肿瘤所致终身死亡概率（LDP）。方法：采用概率加法公式并基于简略寿命表计算LDP。特定年龄死亡率数据于2014年取自中国死因监测数据集的监测点，2004年特定年龄死亡率数据取自中国第三次死因回顾调查。结果：恶性肿瘤、肺癌、胃癌、肝癌、食管癌、结直肠癌和肛管癌所致LDP分别为19.2%、5.6%、2.8%、2.8%、1.7%、1.3%。此外，我们计算了中国三个不同地区恶性肿瘤所致LDP。东部地区恶性肿瘤所致LDP分别为21.2%、6.1%、3.1%、2.8%、2.0%和1.5%；中部地区分别为18.3%、5.5%、2.7%、3.0%、1.5%和1.1%；西部地区分别为16.7%、4.6%、2.3%、2.8%、1.6%和1.2%。另外，对2004年和2015年恶性肿瘤所致LDP进行了比较。我们发现，在过去十年中，恶性肿瘤、肺癌和结直肠癌所致LDP有所上升，而胃癌、肝癌和食管癌所致LDP呈下降趋势。结论：恶性肿瘤仍是导致终身死亡的主要原因，引发LDP。恶性肿瘤所致LDP有两类。第一类是与长期慢性感染相关的传统上消化系统癌症，如食管癌、胃癌和肝癌，其呈显著下降趋势。第二类是与环境因素和生活方式相关的肺癌和结直肠癌，其呈上升趋势。
