Calculation of life-time death probability due malignant tumors based on a sampling survey area in China.

PURPOSE

To calculate the probability of one person's life-time death caused by a malignant tumor and provide theoretical basis for cancer prevention.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The probability of one person's death caused by a tumor was calculated by a probability additive formula and based on an abridged life table. All data for age-specific mortality were from the third retrospective investigation of death cause in China.

RESULTS

The probability of one person's death caused by malignant tumor was 18.7% calculated by the probability additive formula. On the same way, the life-time death probability caused by lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal and anal cancer were 4.47%, 3.62%, 3.25%, 2.25%, 1.11%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Malignant tumor is still the main cause of death in one's life time and the most common causes of cancer death were lung, gastric, liver, esophageal, colorectal and anal cancers. Targeted forms of cancer prevention and treatment strategies should be worked out to improve people's health and prolong life in China. The probability additive formula is a more scientific and objective method to calculate the probability of one person's life-time death than cumulative death probability .