Yuan Ping, Chen Tie-Hui, Chen Zhong-Wu, Lin Xiu-Quan
Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention Fuzhou, China E-mail :
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2014;15(10):4307-9. doi: 10.7314/apjcp.2014.15.10.4307.
To calculate the probability of one person's life-time death caused by a malignant tumor and provide theoretical basis for cancer prevention.
The probability of one person's death caused by a tumor was calculated by a probability additive formula and based on an abridged life table. All data for age-specific mortality were from the third retrospective investigation of death cause in China.
The probability of one person's death caused by malignant tumor was 18.7% calculated by the probability additive formula. On the same way, the life-time death probability caused by lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal and anal cancer were 4.47%, 3.62%, 3.25%, 2.25%, 1.11%, respectively.
Malignant tumor is still the main cause of death in one's life time and the most common causes of cancer death were lung, gastric, liver, esophageal, colorectal and anal cancers. Targeted forms of cancer prevention and treatment strategies should be worked out to improve people's health and prolong life in China. The probability additive formula is a more scientific and objective method to calculate the probability of one person's life-time death than cumulative death probability .
计算个体因恶性肿瘤导致终身死亡的概率，为癌症预防提供理论依据。
基于简略寿命表，采用概率加法公式计算个体因肿瘤导致死亡的概率。年龄别死亡率的所有数据均来自中国第三次死因回顾调查。
采用概率加法公式计算得出个体因恶性肿瘤导致死亡的概率为18.7%。同理，因肺癌、胃癌、肝癌、食管癌、结直肠癌和肛管癌导致的终身死亡概率分别为4.47%、3.62%、3.25%、2.25%、1.11%。
恶性肿瘤仍是个体终身死亡的主要原因，癌症死亡的最常见原因是肺癌、胃癌、肝癌、食管癌、结直肠癌和肛管癌。应制定有针对性的癌症预防和治疗策略，以改善中国人民的健康状况并延长寿命。与累积死亡概率相比，概率加法公式是一种计算个体终身死亡概率更科学、客观的方法。
