Jorm A F, Korten A E, Jacomb P A
NH & MRC Social Psychiatry Research Unit, Australian National University, Canberra.
Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1988 Oct;78(4):493-500. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1988.tb06372.x.
A method is described for making projections of increases in dementia cases over a given base year. The method is based on a statistical model relating dementia prevalence to age that is derived from the results of all published prevalence studies. This method was applied to United Nations population projections for 29 developed countries to arrive at expected increases in number of dementia cases in each country for the period 1980 to 2025.
本文描述了一种对给定基准年后痴呆症病例增加情况进行预测的方法。该方法基于一个将痴呆症患病率与年龄相关联的统计模型，该模型源自所有已发表的患病率研究结果。此方法应用于联合国对29个发达国家的人口预测，以得出每个国家在1980年至2025年期间痴呆症病例数量的预期增长情况。
