[Trends in the number of patients with senile dementia and need for nursing care in the upcoming 50 years--a demographic projection based on epidemiologic data for former West Germany].

According to population projections there will shortly be an increase in the number of aged people. Since these population groups show a high risk to develop old age dementia and because this sickness goes along with the need of care, it is necessary for planning future needs of buildings and funds to know about the extent of expected dementia and the number of people needing care. Based on population projections up to the year 2040 for the (West) German Länder of the Federal Republic of Germany and based on four epidemiological studies, we developed a model to project empirically the number of dementia cases for the next 50 years. This model is based on an exponential growth of prevalence with increasing age. According to our estimates the number of patients with severe and moderate dementia will rise by about 50% from 1990 until 2040. The expected number of people needing care is estimated to facilitate prospective planning as well as timely provision of adequate financial and personnel resources.