Division of Occupational and Environmental Health, Lund University, 221 00 Lund, Sweden.
Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jul 14;17(14):5064. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17145064.
A health impact assessment (HIA) is an important tool for making informed decisions regarding the design and evaluation of environmental interventions. In this study, we performed a quantitative HIA for the population of Scania (1,247,993), the southernmost county in Sweden, in 2016. The impact of annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM), modeled at their home residences for the year 2011, on mortality, asthma, dementia, autism spectrum disorders, preeclampsia and low birth weight (LBW) was explored. Concentration-response (C-R) functions were taken from epidemiological studies reporting meta-analyses when available, and otherwise from single epidemiological studies. The average level of PM experienced by the study population was 11.88 µg/m. The PM exposure was estimated to cause 9-11% of cases of LBW and 6% of deaths from natural causes. Locally produced PM alone contributed to 2-9% of the cases of diseases and disorders investigated. Reducing concentrations to a maximum of 10 µg/m would, according to our estimations, reduce mortality by 3% and reduce cases of LBW by 2%. Further analyses of separate emission sources' distinct effects were also presented. Reduction of air pollution levels in the study area would, as expected, have a substantial effect on both mortality and adverse health outcomes. Reductions should be aimed for by local authorities and on national and even international levels.
健康影响评估（HIA）是针对环境干预措施的设计和评估做出明智决策的重要工具。在本研究中，我们针对瑞典最南端的斯科讷省（1,247,993 人）于 2016 年进行了一项定量健康影响评估。我们探讨了 2011 年在其家庭居住地建模的年平均浓度为<2.5 µm 的颗粒物（PM）对死亡率、哮喘、痴呆、自闭症谱系障碍、先兆子痫和低出生体重（LBW）的影响。当有可用的荟萃分析报告时，我们采用了来自流行病学研究的浓度-反应（C-R）函数，否则则采用来自单个流行病学研究的 C-R 函数。研究人群的平均 PM 水平为 11.88 µg/m。PM 暴露估计导致了 9-11%的 LBW 病例和 6%的自然原因死亡。当地产生的 PM 单独导致了所研究疾病和障碍的 2-9%的病例。根据我们的估计，将浓度降低到最高 10 µg/m 将使死亡率降低 3%，并使 LBW 病例减少 2%。我们还提出了对单独排放源的不同影响的进一步分析。研究区域的空气污染水平降低将如预期的那样对死亡率和不良健康结果产生重大影响。地方当局以及国家甚至国际层面都应努力降低污染水平。
