Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence, 50134 Florence, Italy;
Department of Sociology, University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Aug 11;117(32):19116-19121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2008581117. Epub 2020 Jul 22.
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 originated in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and rapidly spread in more than 100 countries. Researchers in different fields have been working on finding explanations for the unequal impact of the virus and deaths from the associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across geographical areas. Demographers and other social scientists have hinted at the importance of demographic factors, such as age structure and intergenerational relationships. Our aim is to reflect on the possible link between intergenerational relationships and spread and lethality of COVID-19 in a critical way. We show that with available aggregate data it is not possible to draw robust evidence to support these links. In fact, despite a higher prevalence of intergenerational coresidence and contacts that is broadly positively associated with COVID-19 case fatality rates at the country level, the opposite is generally true at the subnational level. While this inconsistent evidence demonstrates neither the existence nor the absence of a causal link between intergenerational relationships and the severity of COVID-19, we warn against simplistic interpretations of the available data, which suffer from many shortcomings. We conclude by arguing that intergenerational relationships are not only about physical contacts between family members. Theoretically, different forms of intergenerational relationships may have causal effects of opposite sign on the diffusion of COVID-19. Policies should also take into account that intergenerational ties are a source of instrumental and emotional support, which may favor compliance to the lockdown and "phase-2" restrictions and may buffer their negative consequences on mental health.
严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 于 2019 年底在中国武汉起源,并迅速在 100 多个国家传播。不同领域的研究人员一直在努力寻找解释为何该病毒在地理区域之间的影响和与相关的 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)相关的死亡情况存在差异的原因。人口统计学家和其他社会科学家暗示了人口因素(如年龄结构和代际关系)的重要性。我们的目的是批判性地反思代际关系与 COVID-19 的传播和致死率之间可能存在的联系。我们表明,利用现有综合数据,不可能得出有力的证据来支持这些联系。事实上,尽管代际核心家庭和接触的普遍存在与 COVID-19 死亡率在国家层面上普遍呈正相关,但在次国家层面上,情况通常恰恰相反。尽管这种不一致的证据既不能证明代际关系与 COVID-19 的严重程度之间存在因果关系,也不能证明不存在这种关系,但我们警告不要对现有数据进行简单的解释,因为这些数据存在许多缺陷。最后,我们认为代际关系不仅是家庭成员之间的身体接触。从理论上讲,不同形式的代际关系可能对 COVID-19 的传播产生相反方向的因果影响。政策还应考虑到代际关系是工具和情感支持的来源,这可能有利于遵守封锁和“第二阶段”限制,并减轻其对心理健康的负面影响。