Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Nov 20;744:140816. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140816. Epub 2020 Jul 11.
This research proposes an enhanced Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) with application to an international wetland. The integrated model enhances GMCR using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methods to extract the relative preferences of decision-makers in conflict resolution. The Hawizeh/Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland is facing increased dust storms in recent decades which are attributed to drying up of Mesopotamian wetlands, creating the potential for conflicts among riparian countries. The proposed integrated approach was applied in the Hawizeh/Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland fed by the Tigris and Karkheh Rivers. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria are located in the Tigris River basin, and the Karkheh River originates from the Zagros Mountains in western Iran. The results indicate that the achievement of an environmental balance depends on cooperation between Iran and Iraq to persuade Turkey to release the environmental flow to the wetland. Three strong equilibrium points were identified among 15 feasible states: (a) establishing a regional agreement among Iran, Iraq, and Turkey to reduce the effects of conflicts in the Hawizeh/Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland; (b) coalition of Iran and Iraq to motivate Turkey to reduce water withdrawal from the Tigris River; and finally, (c) exchanging water release for commodity market in Iran and Iraq for Turkey. In general, the economic cooperation among countries can be used as a negotiation tool to solve water conflicts in international wetlands.
本研究提出了一种增强的冲突解决图模型（GMCR），并将其应用于一个国际湿地。该综合模型通过层次分析法（AHP）和决策试验与评价实验室（DEMATEL）方法增强了 GMCR，以提取决策者在冲突解决中的相对偏好。在过去几十年中，豪尔阿扎姆湿地（Hawizeh/Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland）面临着越来越多的沙尘暴，这归因于美索不达米亚湿地的干涸，从而引发了沿岸国家之间冲突的可能性。所提出的综合方法应用于底格里斯河和卡尔克河供水的豪尔阿扎姆湿地。土耳其、伊朗、伊拉克和叙利亚位于底格里斯河流域，而卡尔克河发源于伊朗西部的扎格罗斯山脉。结果表明，实现环境平衡取决于伊朗和伊拉克之间的合作，以说服土耳其向湿地释放环境流量。在 15 个可行状态中确定了三个强大的平衡点：（a）伊朗、伊拉克和土耳其之间建立区域协议，以减少豪尔阿扎姆湿地冲突的影响；（b）伊朗和伊拉克结成联盟，促使土耳其减少从底格里斯河取水；最后，（c）伊朗和伊拉克用商品市场换取水释放，以换取土耳其的水。总的来说，国家间的经济合作可以作为解决国际湿地水冲突的谈判工具。
