University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, PO Box 775, Cambridge, MD 21613, USA.
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, PO Box 775, Cambridge, MD 21613, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Nov 20;744:140947. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140947. Epub 2020 Jul 15.
Retrospective analysis of water quality monitoring data reveals strong interannual shifts in the spatial distribution of two harmful algal species (Prorocentrum minimum and Karlodinium veneficum) in eutrophic Chesapeake Bay. A habitat model, based on the temperature and salinity tolerance of the two species as well as their nutrient preferences, provides a good interpretation for the observed seasonal progression and spatial distribution of these taxa. It also points to climate-induced variability in the hydrological forcing as a mechanism driving the interannual shifts in the algal distributions: both P. minimum and K. veneficum shift downstream during wetter years but upstream during dry years. Climate downscaling simulations using the habitat model show upstream shifts of the two species in the estuary and longer blooming seasons by the mid-21st century. Salt intrusion due to sea level rise will raise salinity in the estuary and cause these HAB species to migrate upstream, but increasing winter-spring flows may also drive favorable salinity habitat downstream. Warming leads to longer growing seasons of P. minimum and K. veneficum but may suppress bloom habitat during their respective peak bloom periods.
回顾性水质监测数据分析表明，富营养化切萨皮克湾两种有害藻类（微小原甲藻和卡盾藻）的空间分布存在强烈的年际变化。基于两种藻类的温度和盐度耐受性及其营养偏好的栖息地模型，很好地解释了这些分类单元的观测到的季节性进展和空间分布。它还指出，水文强迫的气候变化是驱动藻类分布年际变化的机制：微小原甲藻和卡盾藻在湿润年份向下游迁移，而在干旱年份则向上游迁移。使用栖息地模型进行的气候降尺度模拟显示，到 21 世纪中叶，这两个物种在河口向上游迁移，并且开花季节更长。海平面上升导致的盐水入侵会增加河口的盐度，使这些有害藻类向上游迁移，但增加冬春两季的流量也可能使有利的盐度栖息地向下游迁移。变暖会导致微小原甲藻和卡盾藻的生长季节延长，但可能会抑制它们各自的高峰期的繁殖栖息地。
