European School of Sustainability Science and Research, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Ulmenliet 20, D-21033 Hamburg, Germany.
Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD U, UK.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jul 28;17(15):5409. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17155409.
Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have health care systems with a limited capacity to deal with pandemics, making them especially vulnerable to the economic and social impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19). This paper examines the introduction, transmission, and incidence of COVID-19 into Pacific SIDS.
Calculate the rate of transmission (the average number of new cases per day between the first recorded case and the most recent day) and connectivity (daily direct flights to the leading airport in each selected island group) using flight history and COVID-19 transmission data.
Correlational analyses show that connectivity is positively related with (a) first-case dates and (b) spread rate in Pacific SIDS.
Connectivity plays a central role in the spread of COVID-19 in Pacific SIDS. The continued entry of people was a significant factor for spread within countries. Efforts to prevent transmission by closing borders reduced transmission but also created significant economic hardship because many Pacific SIDS rely heavily on tourism and international exchange. The findings highlight the importance of exploring the possibility that the COVID-19 spread rate may be higher than official figures indicate, and present pathways to mitigate socio-economic impacts. The practical implications of the findings reveal the vulnerability of Pacific SIDS to pandemics and the key role of connectivity in the spread of COVID-19 in the Pacific region.
太平洋小岛屿发展中国家（SIDS）的医疗体系应对大流行病的能力有限，使它们特别容易受到冠状病毒（COVID-19）的经济和社会影响。本文研究了 COVID-19 传入太平洋 SIDS 的情况。
利用飞行记录和 COVID-19 传播数据计算传播率（从首例病例到最近一天每天新增病例的平均数）和连通性（每天飞往每个选定岛屿群主要机场的直飞航班）。
相关分析表明，连通性与（a）太平洋 SIDS 的首例病例日期和（b）传播速度呈正相关。
连通性在 COVID-19 在太平洋 SIDS 的传播中起着核心作用。人员的持续入境是导致国内传播的重要因素。为防止传播而关闭边界减少了传播，但也造成了巨大的经济困难，因为许多太平洋 SIDS 严重依赖旅游业和国际交流。这些发现强调了探索 COVID-19 传播速度可能高于官方数据所表明的可能性的重要性，并提出了减轻社会经济影响的途径。研究结果揭示了太平洋 SIDS 对大流行病的脆弱性以及连通性在 COVID-19 在太平洋地区传播中的关键作用。
