Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil.
Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Nov 20;744:140981. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140981. Epub 2020 Jul 18.
Accelerated changes in land use in the regions of the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado in the last four decades have raised questions about the possible consequences for the regional hydrology. Our study area is the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin (TAW), focusing on the Tucuruí Hydropower Plant (THP), downstream of the TAW. In this study, we evaluated four scenarios of change in land use and cover for the TAW in which forest areas were replaced by pasture, then by agriculture, then by reforestation vegetation and, finally, by regenerated forest to investigate the impacts on the hydrological components of the basin and the hydropower potential of the THP according to these scenarios. For this evaluation, the SWAT model was used to simulate the streamflow of each scenario, so it was possible to predict the hydropower potential in the TAW under different environmental perspectives. Nonparametric statistics were used to identify the efficiency of turbines in converting the streamflow into energy at the 5% significance level. A reduction was observed in the annual evapotranspiration rate and increments were observed in the surface runoff and streamflow, but despite the increase in flow, there was no increase in the energy produced at the THP due to the inability of the turbines to convert excess water into energy, with losses in the energy production of up to 30% per month and 65% in the annual balance. Our results emphasize the importance of the sustainable management of hydrological basins located in tropical regions and aid in planning and decision-making to create public policies that better meet the demand for the exploitation of natural resources.
在过去四十年中，巴西亚马逊地区和塞拉多地区的土地利用加速变化，引发了人们对该地区水文可能产生的后果的关注。我们的研究区域是托坎廷斯-阿拉瓜亚河流域（TAW），重点关注 TAW 下游的图库鲁伊水电站（THP）。在这项研究中，我们评估了 TAW 土地利用和覆盖的四个变化情景，其中森林地区被牧场、农业、再造林植被取代，最后是再生森林，以研究这些情景对流域水文组成部分和 THP 水力发电潜力的影响。为了进行这种评估，使用了 SWAT 模型来模拟每个情景的水流，以便能够根据不同的环境视角预测 TAW 的水力发电潜力。非参数统计用于在 5%的显著性水平下识别涡轮机将水流转化为能源的效率。观察到年蒸散率降低，地表径流量和水流增加，但尽管流量增加，THP 产生的能量并没有增加，这是由于涡轮机无法将多余的水转化为能源，导致能源产量损失高达每月 30%，年平衡损失 65%。我们的研究结果强调了位于热带地区的水文流域可持续管理的重要性，并有助于规划和决策，以制定更好地满足自然资源开发需求的公共政策。
