CEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain.
CEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain; Grupo de Sistemas Complejos, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jan 10;803:149906. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149906. Epub 2021 Sep 1.
Land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios in rural catchment hydrology are crucial to describe the effects of future water dynamics. However, there is a lack of understanding of the effectiveness of including static land covers at the subbasin level to provide inter-annual stability in changing the different water balance components. We developed a step-by-step mapping protocol to extend and enrich the hydrological assessment of future LULC scenarios defined through participatory stakeholder involvement. This novelty included specific allocation of static and dynamic LULC change among the scenarios and then compared the change of water dynamics to the current situation. For this, we quantified the LULC impact on the components of the water balance from three contrasting participatory scenarios implemented with the SWAT model in a rural basin in central Spain. The Land-sharing scenario (LSH) had the highest percentage of permanent grassland and shrubs and no increase of irrigated land compared to baseline. The land-sparing scenario (LSP) intensified agricultural land use close to urban areas, and the land balance scenario (LBA) was intermediate. The LSH increased the aquifer recharge by +1.7% and streamflow by +1.5%, while evapotranspiration and soil water storage decreased by -0.2%. In contrast, the LBA decreased in the riverine flux of -0.5%, an aquifer recharge of -0.6%, a soil water storage of -3.5%, and an evapotranspiration rate of +0.3%. Thus, LSH revealed that the allocation of permanent land cover such as grassland could buffer water dynamics, suggesting that dedicated planning and allocation of permanently vegetated LULC will favour land and water conservation.
农村流域水文的土地利用和土地覆被（LULC）情景对于描述未来水动力的影响至关重要。然而，人们对于在子流域水平上包含静态土地覆盖来提供不同水量平衡分量变化的年度稳定性的有效性缺乏了解。我们开发了一种逐步的制图协议，通过参与式利益相关者的参与来扩展和丰富未来 LULC 情景的水文评估。这种新颖性包括在情景中对静态和动态 LULC 变化进行特定分配，然后将水动力的变化与现状进行比较。为此，我们使用 SWAT 模型在西班牙中部的一个农村流域中对三种具有代表性的情景下的 LULC 变化对水量平衡各分量的影响进行了量化。土地共享情景（LSH）与基线相比，永久性草地和灌木的比例最高，灌溉土地没有增加。土地保护情景（LSP）在靠近城市的地方强化了农业用地，而土地平衡情景（LBA）则处于中间位置。LSH 将含水层补给增加了+1.7%，地表径流增加了+1.5%，而蒸散和土壤水储量减少了-0.2%。相比之下，LBA 减少了河流通量的-0.5%，含水层补给的-0.6%，土壤水储量的-3.5%和蒸散率的+0.3%。因此，LSH 表明，分配永久性土地覆盖，如草地，可以缓冲水动力，这表明专门规划和分配永久性植被的 LULC 将有利于土地和水资源的保护。
