Epidemiology of human papillomavirus-related oropharyngeal cancer in a classically low-burden region of southern Europe.

The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal cancer is increasing in some regions. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of this disease has not been extensively investigated in southern Europe. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with primary oropharyngeal cancer from 1991 to 2016. Cancer tissues underwent histopathological evaluation, DNA quality control, HPV-DNA detection and p16 immunohistochemistry. Data were collected from medical records. Factors associated with HPV positivity and time trends were evaluated with multivariable Bayesian models. The adjusted prevalence of HPV-related cases in 864 patients with a valid HPV-DNA result was 9.7%, with HPV-DNA/p16 double positivity being considered. HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer was likely to occur in non-smokers and non-drinkers, to be located in the tonsil or diagnosed at advanced stages. Time-trend analysis showed an increasing risk of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer in the most recent periods (5-year period increase of 30%). This increase was highest and with a clear increasing trend only in the most recent years (2012-2016). The prevalence of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer started to sharply increase in the most recent years in our setting, as occurred two decades ago in areas where most oropharyngeal cancer cases are currently HPV-related. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological landscape of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer in a region of southern Europe.