School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (Dr Leider); Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland (Dr Leider); de Beaumont Foundation, Bethesda, Maryland (Drs Sellers and Castrucci); Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, Arlington, Virginia (Ms Bogaert); and Center for State and Local Government Excellence, Washington, District of Columbia (Dr Liss-Levinson).
J Public Health Manag Pract. 2021 Jan/Feb;27(1):38-45. doi: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000001172.
To ascertain levels of turnover in public health staff between 2014 and 2017 due to retirement or quitting and to project levels of turnover for the whole of the state and local governmental public health in the United States nationally.
Turnover outcomes were analyzed for 15 128 staff from public health agencies between 2014 and 2017. Determinants of turnover were assessed using a logit model, associated with actually leaving one's organization. A microsimulation model was used to project expected turnover onto the broader workforce.
Between 2014 and 2017, 33% of staff left their agency. Half of the staff who indicated they were considering leaving in 2014 had done so by 2017, as did a quarter of the staff who had said they were not considering leaving. Staff younger than 30 years constituted 6% of the workforce but 13% of those who left (P < .001).
Public health agencies are expected to experience turnover in 60 000 of 200 000 staff positions between 2017 and 2020.
As much as one-third of the US public health workforce is expected to leave in the coming years. Retention efforts, especially around younger staff, must be a priority. Succession planning for those retiring is also a significant concern.
确定 2014 年至 2017 年期间因退休或离职而离开公共卫生人员的离职率，并预测美国全国州和地方政府公共卫生部门的离职率。
分析了 2014 年至 2017 年期间来自公共卫生机构的 15128 名员工的离职结果。使用逻辑回归模型评估离职的决定因素，该模型与实际离开组织的情况相关联。使用微模拟模型将预期离职率预测到更广泛的劳动力中。
2014 年至 2017 年间，33%的员工离开其机构。在 2014 年表示正在考虑离职的员工中，有一半人在 2017 年已经离职，而在 2014 年表示不考虑离职的员工中，也有四分之一的人已经离职。年龄在 30 岁以下的员工占劳动力的 6%，但离职员工中占 13%（P<0.001）。
预计 2017 年至 2020 年间，20 万名员工中有 6 万名员工将离职。
未来几年，预计美国公共卫生劳动力的三分之一将离职。保留措施，尤其是针对年轻员工的保留措施，必须成为优先事项。对于即将退休的人员的继任计划也是一个重大关注。
