Harlem Hospital Medical Center, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
J Perinatol. 2021 Mar;41(3):445-452. doi: 10.1038/s41372-020-00773-1. Epub 2020 Aug 10.
Discrepancies between physician and parent neonatal prognostic expectations are common. Optimism bias is a possible explanation.
Parents interpreted hypothetical neonatal prognoses in an online survey.
Good prognoses tended to be interpreted accurately, while poor prognoses were interpreted as less than the stated value. One-third of participants consistently overstated survival for the three lowest prognoses, compared to the sample as a whole. Three significant predictors of such optimistic interpretations were single-parent status (OR 0.39; 95% CI 0.2-0.75; p = 0.005), African-American descent (OR 3.78; 95% CI 1.63-8.98; p = 0.002) and the belief that physicians misrepresented prognoses (OR 3.11; 95% CI 1.47-6.65; p = 0.003). Participants' explanations echoed research on optimism bias in clinical and decision science studies.
Participants accepted positive prognoses for critically ill neonates, but reinterpreted negative ones as being unduly pessimistic demonstrating optimism bias.
医生和家长对新生儿预后的期望存在差异是很常见的。乐观偏见是一种可能的解释。
家长在在线调查中解释了假设的新生儿预后。
好的预后往往被准确地解释，而差的预后则被解释为低于所陈述的值。与整个样本相比，三分之一的参与者始终高估了三种预后最差的存活率。对这种乐观解释有三个显著预测因素：单亲家庭（OR 0.39；95%CI 0.2-0.75；p=0.005）、非裔美国人血统（OR 3.78；95%CI 1.63-8.98；p=0.002）和认为医生歪曲了预后的信念（OR 3.11；95%CI 1.47-6.65；p=0.003）。参与者的解释反映了临床和决策科学研究中关于乐观偏见的研究。
参与者接受了重病新生儿的积极预后，但将负面预后重新解释为过于悲观，表现出乐观偏见。
