Choukeir Ali Ismael, Kovács Levente, Kézér Luca Fruzsina, Buják Dávid, Szelényi Zoltán, Abdelmegeid Mohamed Kamel, Gáspárdy András, Szenci Ottó
Department and Clinic for Production Animals, University of Veterinary Medicine, Üllő, Hungary.
National Agricultural Research and Innovation Center, Research Institute for Animal Breeding, Nutrition and Meat Science, Herceghalom, Hungary.
Reprod Domest Anim. 2020 Nov;55(11):1535-1540. doi: 10.1111/rda.13803. Epub 2020 Aug 29.
In this study, the utility of a commercial intravaginal thermometer was evaluated as an automated method for the prediction of calving in a total of 257 healthy pregnant Holstein-Friesian female cattle. The accuracy and the sensitivity of predicting calving within 48 hr before calving were also evaluated. The intravaginal temperature changes from 72 hr before and up to calving were significantly (p ≤ .001) affected by parity, season (summer vs. autumn), the time of day (8 a.m. or 8 p.m.) and the 6-hr time intervals (38.19°C: first interval 0 to 6 hr before calving vs. 38.78°C: twelfth interval 66 to 72 hr before calving), while the gender (p = .943), and the weight of the calf (p = .610), twinning (p = .300), gestation length (p = .186), foetal presentation (p = .123), dystocia (p = .197) and retention of foetal membranes (p = .253) did not affect it significantly. The sensitivity of the SMS of expecting calving within 48 hr and the positive predictive value were 62.4% and 75%, respectively, while the sensitivity and the positive predictive value for the SMS of expulsion reached 100%. It can be concluded that the investigated thermometer is not able to predict calving within 48 hr accurately; however, imminent calving can be accurately alerted.
在本研究中，对一种商用阴道温度计作为预测257头健康怀孕荷斯坦-弗里生母牛产犊的自动化方法的效用进行了评估。还评估了在产犊前48小时内预测产犊的准确性和敏感性。产犊前72小时直至产犊期间的阴道温度变化受到胎次、季节（夏季与秋季）、一天中的时间（上午8点或晚上8点）以及6小时时间间隔（38.19°C：产犊前0至6小时的第一个间隔与38.78°C：产犊前66至72小时的第十二个间隔）的显著影响（p≤0.001），而性别（p = 0.943）、犊牛体重（p = 0.610）、双胎（p = 0.300）、妊娠期长度（p = 0.186）、胎儿胎位（p = 0.123）、难产（p = 0.197）和胎膜滞留（p = 0.253）对其影响不显著。预测48小时内产犊的短信服务（SMS）的敏感性和阳性预测值分别为62.4%和75%，而排出的短信服务的敏感性和阳性预测值达到100%。可以得出结论，所研究的温度计不能准确预测48小时内的产犊；然而，可以准确提醒即将产犊。
