Improvement of mortality prediction accuracy in critically ill patients through combination of SOFA and APACHE II score with markers of stress haematopoiesis.

INTRODUCTION

In critically ill patients nucleated red blood cells (NRBC) and immature granulocytes (IG) appear in the peripheral blood as the consequence of stress haematopoesis. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of NRBC and IG and to propose a model of improved mortality prediction including these parameters in the assessment of critically ill patients.

METHODS

The study included 338 critically ill adult patients hospitalized at Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Medicine, Louis Pasteur University Hospital in Kosice. As NRBC positive patients were considered patients with peripheral NRBC > 0.01 × 10 /L and IG positivity as >0.03 × 10 /L. Apache II index was calculated 24 hours after admission and Systemic Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) on the day with the worst clinical condition.

RESULTS

NRBC positivity was found in 27.6% of patients. The mortality of NRBC positive patients was 48.38%, significantly higher than 23.7% of NRBC negative patients. IG positivity was 79.0% and their mortality was also higher as compared with that of IG negative patients (69.3% vs 33.8%). Three regression models predicting mortality including stress haematopoiesis markers, APACHE II, SOFA scores and age had sufficient level of sensitivity and specificity.

CONCLUSION

The presence of NRBC in the peripheral blood and the IG increase are available early risk predictors of mortality in critically ill patients. Regression models designed by combination of SOFA, APACHE II, and the new haematological parameters increase the accuracy and effectivity of diagnostic process in predicting prognosis and risk of mortality with high sensitivity and specificity.