National Engineering Research Center for Optical Instruments, Centre for Optical and Electromagnetic Research, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Ningbo Research Institute, Zhejiang University, Ningbo, 315100, China.
Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 17;10(1):13873. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-70544-7.
Predicting and modeling human behavior and finding trends within human decision-making processes is a major problem of social science. Rock Paper Scissors (RPS) is the fundamental strategic question in many game theory problems and real-world competitions. Finding the right approach to beat a particular human opponent is challenging. Here we use an AI (artificial intelligence) algorithm based on Markov Models of one fixed memory length (abbreviated as "single AI") to compete against humans in an iterated RPS game. We model and predict human competition behavior by combining many Markov Models with different fixed memory lengths (abbreviated as "multi-AI"), and develop an architecture of multi-AI with changeable parameters to adapt to different competition strategies. We introduce a parameter called "focus length" (a positive number such as 5 or 10) to control the speed and sensitivity for our multi-AI to adapt to the opponent's strategy change. The focus length is the number of previous rounds that the multi-AI should look at when determining which Single-AI has the best performance and should choose to play for the next game. We experimented with 52 different people, each playing 300 rounds continuously against one specific multi-AI model, and demonstrated that our strategy could win against more than 95% of human opponents.
预测和模拟人类行为,发现人类决策过程中的趋势,是社会科学的一个主要问题。石头剪刀布(RPS)是许多博弈论问题和现实世界竞赛中的基本战略问题。找到击败特定人类对手的正确方法是具有挑战性的。在这里,我们使用基于马尔可夫模型的人工智能(AI)算法(简称“单 AI”),在迭代的 RPS 游戏中与人类竞争。我们通过结合具有不同固定记忆长度的多个马尔可夫模型来对人类竞争行为进行建模和预测(简称“多 AI”),并开发出一种具有可变参数的多 AI 架构,以适应不同的竞争策略。我们引入了一个名为“关注长度”(例如 5 或 10 这样的正整数)的参数,以控制多 AI 适应对手策略变化的速度和敏感性。关注长度是多 AI 在确定哪个单 AI 表现最佳并应选择在下一场比赛中使用时应该查看的前几轮的数量。我们对 52 名不同的人进行了实验,每个人连续与一个特定的多 AI 模型进行 300 轮比赛,结果表明,我们的策略可以击败 95%以上的人类对手。