Van de Graaf Thijs, Overland Indra, Scholten Daniel, Westphal Kirsten
Ghent University, Belgium.
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), Norway.
Energy Res Soc Sci. 2020 Dec;70:101667. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101667. Epub 2020 Jun 30.
While most hydrogen research focuses on the technical and cost hurdles to a full-scale hydrogen economy, little consideration has been given to the geopolitical drivers and consequences of hydrogen developments. The technologies and infrastructures underpinning a hydrogen economy can take markedly different forms, and the choice over which pathway to take is the object of competition between different stakeholders and countries. Over time, cross-border maritime trade in hydrogen has the potential to fundamentally redraw the geography of global energy trade, create a new class of energy exporters, and reshape geopolitical relations and alliances between countries. International governance and investments to scale up hydrogen value chains could reduce the risk of market fragmentation, carbon lock-in, and intensified geo-economic rivalry.
虽然大多数氢能研究聚焦于全面氢能经济面临的技术和成本障碍，但很少有人考虑氢能发展的地缘政治驱动因素及其后果。支撑氢能经济的技术和基础设施可能呈现截然不同的形式，而选择何种路径是不同利益相关者和国家之间竞争的焦点。随着时间的推移，跨境海上氢能贸易有可能从根本上重塑全球能源贸易格局，催生新的能源出口国类别，并重塑国家间的地缘政治关系与联盟。扩大氢能价值链的国际治理和投资可以降低市场碎片化、碳锁定和地缘经济竞争加剧的风险。
