Ribeiro Joana, Bingre Pedro, Strubbe Diederik, Santana Joana, Capinha César, Araújo Miguel B, Reino Luís
University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
Coimbra Polytechnic, Coimbra, Portugal.
Bioscience. 2022 Apr 6;72(6):560-572. doi: 10.1093/biosci/biac015. eCollection 2022 Jun.
International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios' plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.
国际野生动物贸易是物种灭绝和生物入侵的主要驱动因素。预测环境风险需要推断贸易模式，而贸易模式受地缘政治影响。尽管未来无法预测，但情景分析有助于应对未来地缘政治动态的不确定性。我们提出了一个基于四个地缘政治故事情节生成和分析情景的框架，这些故事情节根据供应和需求野生动物的国家的国际贸易壁垒强度和国内执法程度的组合来区分。然后，我们利用鸟类贸易的历史数据将各国分类为地缘政治概况，并确认贸易壁垒和执法能够预测鸟类贸易模式，支持我们情景的合理性，并对未来全球鸟类贸易进行预测。我们的框架可用于研究地缘政治变化对野生动物贸易的影响，并为政策和立法提供建议。减少对野生动物的需求和改善全球不平等是遏制与贸易相关风险的关键。
