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易变、不确定、复杂和模糊(VUCA)危机期间的决策:来自2017年北加利福尼亚州火灾风暴的见解。

Decision-making during VUCA crises: Insights from the 2017 Northern California firestorm.

作者信息

Thomas Cliff

机构信息

Atlas Group, Inc.

出版信息

J Bus Contin Emer Plan. 2020 Jan 1;14(1):82-94.

Abstract

Decision-making is a central aspect of crisis management, yet research and literature directed at the topic are scarce. Consequently, practitioners have access to very few new decision-making insights. To help fill this knowledge gap, a study of leader decision-making during the 2017 Northern California firestorm was undertaken. The outcomes of the study suggest that crisis decision-making may be less process-driven and consequence-focused than has been previously thought. Rather, a myriad of human elements appear to have significantly influenced crisis decision-making. Three influences discussed in this paper involve the fluidity and variability of decision factors, leader and team trust, and leader wellbeing. Finally, the paper discusses the practical implications of the study's outcomes.

摘要

决策是危机管理的核心环节,但针对该主题的研究和文献却很匮乏。因此,从业者能够获取的有关决策的新见解非常少。为了填补这一知识空白,我们开展了一项关于2017年北加利福尼亚州森林大火期间领导者决策的研究。研究结果表明,危机决策可能不像之前认为的那样受流程驱动和以结果为导向。相反,众多人为因素似乎对危机决策产生了重大影响。本文讨论的三个影响因素包括决策因素的流动性和可变性、领导者与团队的信任以及领导者的幸福感。最后,本文探讨了该研究结果的实际意义。

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