NeuroMuscularFunction, Research Group, School of Exercise & Sport Sciences, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Scand J Med Sci Sports. 2021 Jan;31(1):132-139. doi: 10.1111/sms.13819. Epub 2020 Sep 21.
This study aimed (a) to estimate the transition rate for top 50 ranked track and field jumpers, (b) to compare the performance progression of top 50 ranked senior jumpers (top50 senior) to those who failed to be top 50 ranked in the senior category despite being top 50 ranked in the under 18 category (only U18), and (c) to verify whether relative age effect may at least partially explain the differences in the two above-mentioned subgroups. The career performance trajectories of 5981 athletes (2837 females) competing in jump events from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the World Athletics database. The all-time top 50 ranked athletes for each age from 16 years to senior category were identified. Performance progression characteristics were compared using linear mixed-effects model. Only 8% of males and 16% of females top 50 ranked at the age of 16 years managed to be included among the top50 senior. Only U18subgroup made the first appearance in the database (at 15-16 years) and reached the peak performance (at 20 years) earlier than top50 senior (17-18 and 26-27 years, respectively). The relative age effect was largely present in Only U18 but not in top50 senior subgroups. Most of the early-successful U18 world-class jumpers did not manage to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood since they experienced a plateau in performance from 20 years of age. Conversely, top 50 ranked senior jumpers continued to produce consistent performance improvement up to 26-27 years of age.
(a) 估算排名前 50 位的田径跳跃运动员的过渡率；(b) 比较排名前 50 位的高级跳跃运动员（top50 senior）的表现进展与那些尽管在 18 岁以下类别中排名前 50 位，但未能在高级类别中排名前 50 位的运动员（仅 U18）的表现进展；(c) 验证相对年龄效应是否至少部分解释了上述两个亚组之间的差异。从世界田径数据库中提取了 2000 年至 2019 年参加跳跃项目的 5981 名运动员（2837 名女性）的职业表现轨迹。确定了每个年龄（从 16 岁到高级组）的前 50 名排名的所有时间最佳运动员。使用线性混合效应模型比较表现进展特征。只有 8%的男性和 16%的女性在 16 岁时排名前 50 位，能够进入 top50 senior。只有 U18 亚组首先出现在数据库中（在 15-16 岁），并且比 top50 senior（分别在 17-18 岁和 26-27 岁）更早达到峰值表现。相对年龄效应在 Only U18 中很明显，但在 top50 senior 亚组中不明显。大多数早期成功的 U18 世界级跳跃运动员由于在 20 岁时表现出现平台期，因此未能在成年后保持相同的竞争力。相比之下，top50 senior 跳跃运动员在 26-27 岁之前继续保持一致的表现提高。
