Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Turin, Italy; Neuromuscular Function Research Group, School of Exercise & Sport Sciences, University of Turin, Italy; Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Italy. Electronic address: https://twitter.com/PRBrustio.
Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Italy.
J Sci Med Sport. 2024 Sep;27(9):654-659. doi: 10.1016/j.jsams.2024.05.007. Epub 2024 May 20.
There is limited information on the performance progression of athletics endurance athletes from junior-to-senior status and the determinants of success in adulthood. This study aimed to quantify the youth-to-senior transition rate, the likelihood of success and the relationship between youth and senior performance amongst world-class athletes competing in middle- and long-distance disciplines.
Retrospective design examining public data between 2000 and 2019.
The performances of 4678 international athletes (45.3 % female) were analysed. World's all-time top 50 athletes were identified for U18 and Senior categories (age ≥ 20 years). Youth-to-senior transition rate and transition probabilities were calculated. Correlations between best U18 and Senior performances were determined to assess the stability of the performance.
The youth-to-senior transition rate for top U18 athletes was low for males and females (~19 % and 21 %). Nevertheless, the probability of transition to a top senior was ~7 times higher for top U18 athletes than for non-top U18 athletes. The correlations between youth and senior best performances were low-to-high.
Few top U18 athletes maintained top world ranking status during their senior careers. Still, they are more likely to become top senior athletes than those who did not perform at the top level in U18. The association between youth and senior performance is stronger when comparing the same discipline or when athletes competed over longer distances in their senior compared to U18 career. Being a successful youth athlete may represent a small advantage for future success, however, it does not guarantee advancement to the senior top level.
关于青少年运动员向成年运动员转变的表现进展，以及成年后取得成功的决定因素，相关信息有限。本研究旨在量化世界级中长跑运动员从青少年到成年的转变率、成功的可能性以及青少年和成年表现之间的关系。
回顾性设计，研究 2000 年至 2019 年之间的公开数据。
分析了 4678 名国际运动员（45.3%为女性）的表现。确定了 U18 和成年组（年龄≥20 岁）的世界前 50 名最佳运动员。计算了青少年到成年的转变率和转变概率。为了评估表现的稳定性，确定了最佳 U18 和成年表现之间的相关性。
顶尖 U18 运动员的青少年到成年的转变率对于男性和女性都较低（约为 19%和 21%）。尽管如此，顶尖 U18 运动员向顶尖成年运动员转变的可能性比非顶尖 U18 运动员高出约 7 倍。青少年和成年最佳表现之间的相关性从低到高不等。
很少有顶尖 U18 运动员能在成年生涯中保持世界顶级排名。尽管如此，与那些在 U18 时没有达到顶级水平的运动员相比，他们更有可能成为顶尖的成年运动员。当比较同一项目或运动员在成年生涯中参加的距离更长时，青少年和成年表现之间的关联更强。作为一名成功的青少年运动员可能代表着未来成功的一个小优势，但这并不能保证他们能晋升到成年的顶级水平。
