Int J Sports Physiol Perform. 2021 Mar 1;16(3):367-374. doi: 10.1123/ijspp.2020-0090. Epub 2020 Dec 9.
To quantify how many of the top 50 under-18 (U18) sprinters in the world managed to become top 50 ranked as adult competitors. The authors also described the career trajectory of athletes ranked in the top 50 during either U18 or senior category.
A total of 4924 male and female athletes competing in sprint races and ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations (now World Athletics) lists in any of the seasons between the 2000 and 2018 were included in the study. The athletes ranked in the top 50 positions of all-time lists during U18, senior, or both categories were analyzed.
Only 17% of the male and 21% of the female top 50 ranked U18 managed to become top 50 ranked senior athletes. The top 50 ranked senior athletes consistently produced yearly larger improvements during late adolescence and early adulthood compared with those who ranked in the top 50 at U18. Furthermore, top 50 ranked senior athletes reached their peak performance later compared with the top 50 ranked only in U18.
This study confirms that early success in track and field is not a good predictor of success at senior level in sprinting events. The yearly performance improvements and their tracking provide the most suitable approach to identify athletes more likely to succeed as elite performers in adulthood. The authors hope that the results of this study can provide useful comparative data and reference criteria for talent-identification and -development programs.
量化世界排名前 50 的顶尖青少年（U18）短跑运动员中有多少人成功成为成年组前 50 名。作者还描述了在 U18 或成年组排名前 50 的运动员的职业轨迹。
本研究共纳入了 4924 名在国际田径联合会（现世界田径）的任何一个赛季的短跑比赛中排名前 50 位的男性和女性运动员。分析了在 U18、成年或两个年龄段都排名前 50 的运动员。
只有 17%的男性和 21%的女性 U18 前 50 名运动员成功成为成年前 50 名运动员。与 U18 前 50 名运动员相比，成年前 50 名运动员在青少年后期和成年早期的每年成绩提升幅度更大。此外，成年前 50 名运动员的最佳表现时间比只在 U18 排名前 50 的运动员晚。
本研究证实，田径运动中的早期成功并不能很好地预测短跑项目中成年组的成功。每年的成绩提高及其跟踪提供了最适合的方法，可以识别更有可能在成年后成为精英运动员的运动员。作者希望本研究的结果能为人才选拔和发展计划提供有用的比较数据和参考标准。
