Uranium-thorium dating of coral mortality and community shift in a highly disturbed inshore reef (Weizhou Island, northern South China Sea).

Inshore coral habitats are at high risk of loss due to a combination of climate warming and regional-scale human impacts. As a result, they have undergone significant declines. Direct evidence of acute and chronic disturbance on most inshore coral assemblages is limited. Long-term, periodical surveys and historical baseline data essential for effective management are lacking. Using high-precision uranium-thorium (UTh) dating, we reconstruct a ~100-year-long history of extensive coral loss, changes in coral community structure, and a shifting baseline. The data were collected at Weizhou Island, northern South China Sea (SCS), which has highly disturbed inshore coral habitats that are typical globally. According to our UTh dates, major coral mortalities around Weizhou Island have occurred since the 1950s, with increasing frequency and severity since the 1980s. The extensive loss of branching Acropora and collapse of coral communities with peaks around 1960, 1984, and 1998 are accompanied by a shift toward low coral cover and noncoral-dominated assemblages. Prior to this collapse, the local coral community structure sustained remarkable long-term stability over millennia. The timing of the Acropora loss and massive coral mortalities coincides with multiple acute and chronic, natural and anthropogenic disturbance events. We suggest that priority should be given to directly addressing the causes of degradation and effectively controlling chronic disturbances before attempting to restore reef ecosystems. This is probably the only way to solve the "wicked problem" of sustaining the key functions and ecosystem services of inshore coral habitats such as those of Weizhou Island, northern SCS.