Does Penrose's Law apply to Hungary? Data of an extended survey and reappraisal.

Penrose described an observation in 1939, according to which an inverse relationship between the size of prison populations and the number of psychiatric beds existed. The purpose of this article was to investigate the validity of this statement for Hungary. The national data between 1989 and 2017 for 25 variables were extracted from the official reports of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. The number of psychiatric beds decreased by 33%, while the number of prisoners increased by about 50%. At the same time, the number of mentally ill patients under compulsive treatment was low, but showed a slight, statistically significant increase. Variables measuring similar feature, for example, the psychiatric characteristics (alcoholics registered, suicide rate, number of hospital beds, welfare home inmates) are variables consistently moving in one direction or the other that may allow finding appropriate indicators of and explanations for the phenomena. An example is the number of psychiatric beds showing a parallel decrease to the numbers of total hospital beds, registered alcoholics, out-patient clinics for children, and suicide rate, and just the opposite direction with forensic settling, involuntary admissions, and welfare home inmates. Similarly, crimes, criminals, homicides, and prisoners can also be grouped. Correlation does not mean a cause and effect relationship, therefore, at the current state of knowledge the connection among variables is not clear in all the cases. To sum up, Hungarian statistical data for three decades support Penrose's original observation on psychiatric beds and prison population, while the Penrose's statement on the inverse relationship between the number of crimes and of psychiatric beds is not supported. However, until deeper relationships are explored, aggregation of variables into few factors seems impossible.