Mapping Thermal Physiology of Vector-Borne Diseases in a Changing Climate: Shifts in Geographic and Demographic Risk of Suitability.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To describe a collection of recent work published on thermal suitability for vector-borne diseases, in which mapping approaches illustrated the geographic shifts, and spatial approaches describe the demographic impact anticipated with a changing climate.

RECENT FINDINGS

While climate change predictions of warming indicate an expansion in VBD suitability risk in some parts of the globe, while in others, optimal temperatures for transmission may be exceeded, as seen for malaria in Western Africa, resulting in declining risk. The thermal suitability of specific vector-pathogen pairs can have large impacts on geographic range of risk, and changes in human demography itself will intersect with this risk to create different vulnerability profiles over the coming century. Using a physiological approach to describe the thermal suitability of transmission for vector-borne diseases allows us to illustrate the future risk as mapped information. This in turn can be coupled with demographic projections to anticipate changing risk, and even changing vulnerability within that population change.