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相互关联的全球威胁:气候变化、生物多样性丧失和传染病。

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases.

机构信息

Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

出版信息

Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Apr;8(4):e270-e283. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00021-4.

Abstract

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

摘要

全球气温上升、物种灭绝率和发生率上升以及传染病的出现带来了前所未有的行星危机。政府间报告将焦点集中在不断升级的气候和生物多样性危机及其之间的联系上,但人们在很大程度上忽视了这三种压力之间的相互作用。压力之间的非线性和阻尼以及增强相互作用使得考虑相互联系对于预测行星挑战至关重要。在这篇综述中,我们定义并举例说明了将气候变化、生物多样性丧失和传染病这三种全球压力联系起来的因果途径。文献评估和案例研究表明,某些压力对之间的机制比其他机制理解得更好,而且很少考虑到这三个压力之间的全部相互作用。尽管评估这些相互作用的挑战很大,包括在规模、数据可用性和方法上的不匹配,但目前的方法将受益于扩大科学文化,以接受跨学科性,并将动物、人类和环境视角整合在一起。通过确定共同利益和互利情景的潜力,并突出关注一种压力的解决方案可能会加剧另一种压力的情况,考虑全套联系将对行星健康产生变革性影响。

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